A Dangerous Game: Understanding Stabilitocracy in Serbia
Introduction
Is Serbia really a democracy? This is the question that might arise once you realise that Aleksandar Vučić has dominated the political system for 13 years, first as Prime Minister and then as President, and that the ruling party has not changed since 2012.
The country’s constitution guarantees rights such as media freedom, freedom of assembly and association, and equality and non-discrimination. Citizens are called to vote in presidential elections every five years, and parliamentary elections are held every four years. Furthermore, Serbia is an EU candidate country and, as such, it should align with EU legislation, especially guaranteeing democratic processes and fundamental freedoms.
Nevertheless, de facto, the situation in Serbia seems very different, with continuously shrinking democratic practices. Analysts, watchdogs, and the same Serbian civil society have repeatedly asked for EU representatives to recall the Serbian President and Government to respect democratic values and freedoms. However, for years, the answer has been perceived as soft and mostly meant to maintain stability in the region rather than generating a true regime change.
This article will address the question of democracy in Serbia, understanding the EU’s role in creating what academics have called a “Stabilitocracy”, highlighting opportunities and risks.
What is a democracy?
Before delving into the Serbian case, it is essential to understand what “democracy” means. A democracy is, in general terms, a political system based on the participation of a country’s citizens in its political life and decisions. Through elections, people are free to decide who governs the country, voting to choose their political leaders. However, while elections are the basis, democracy is reinforced by a series of freedoms guaranteed to citizens (Reconnect Europe, n.d.).
First of all, it is not enough to simply have elections, but these need to be free and fair. Voters need to be free to choose for whom to vote, among a pool of multiple parties and candidates, without being constrained to vote for a specific candidate. “Fair” means that everyone should be allowed to vote without discrimination, that all political parties have an equal right to campaign, and that all votes are counted and have the same value.
Human rights and equality are also important aspects of democracy: The right to vote and stand as a candidate, and the rights to freedom of thought, expression, and assembly are fundamental to guarantee the smooth functioning of a democracy. All citizens must be allowed to take part in elections, both as voters and candidates, be free to express their opinions about the ruling leaders, and take part in peaceful organisations and associations, therefore participating in the political life of the country without fearing repercussions.
To guarantee accountability and respect for the legislation, a solid Rule of Law is necessary. The Rule of Law refers to how political power is employed: the policymakers, meaning those who have the power to make the legislation, are required to follow the rules just like anyone else, and should be held accountable in case they infringe the law. To guarantee the Rule of Law, the legislative, executive, and judicial powers must be separated and work independently from each other.
Another important element to reinforce democracy is the freedom of the press, closely tied to freedom of speech, also expressed in Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Journalism should be allowed to spread information, news, and ideas freely, without governmental interference or censorship (Soken-Huberty, 2023).
Serbia’s Democratic Checklist
The website of Freedom House offers a good overview of Serbia’s respect for democratic freedoms. With yearly assessments of all the countries in the world, Freedom House analyses multiple political rights and civil liberties, respectively assessing them with scores of a maximum of 40 and 60 points (Freedom House, 2025).
Divided into Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, and Functioning of Government, Political Rights in Serbia score 18 out of 40.
Among the main setbacks for the electoral process are the numerous irregularities reported during the latest 2023 parliamentary elections, and the poorly regulated electoral process, involving untransparent campaign financing, low media conduct regulations, and the lack of intervention against corruption and misuse of public funds. While elections remain formally competitive, with multiple parties and candidates, they are conducted in an uneven playing field.
Political Pluralism and Participation are particularly hindered by a lack of opportunity for the opposition to increase its voter base. The ruling party SNS, of which President Vučić is the leader, has continuously obstructed the opposition’s electoral opportunities through the manipulation of the timing of snap elections, pressure on state institutions, the use of public funds for its campaigns, and the mobilisation of voters from neighbouring countries. Moreover, the SNS widely controls Serbian public and private media outlets, which convey favourable narratives for the party and discredit the opposition. Cases of intimidation and violence against opposition members have also escalated over the years.
The Functioning of Government is particularly compromised by the lack of safeguards against corruption and transparency. Cronyism, meaning the appointment of allies to positions of authority, is a common practice, and individuals who expose corrupt practices are often removed from their positions, threatened, and even arrested. Overall, the appointment processes through public tenders seriously lack transparency, and the Law on Public Procurement has been repeatedly bypassed, raising concerns about corruption and favouritism.
Civil Liberties are operationalised under Freedom of Expression and Belief, Association and Organisational Rights, Rule of Law, and Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights.
Freedom of Expression and Belief represent the highest concern, particularly hindered by limited freedom and independence of the media and the hostility against high-profile critics and open discussions opposing the government. As already pointed out, the ruling SNS and its proxies own and direct most media outlets, supporting the government’s operations and limiting the visibility of opposition voices. The few independent outlets and journalists who criticise the government and its members are often monitored through spyware, threatened, imprisoned, or suffer verbal and physical violence, just like other high-profile individuals who are perceived as opponents, including civil society leaders and university professors.
The Pathway towards a Stabilitocracy…
The term “Stabilitocracy” refers to semi-authoritarian regimes that receive external legitimacy in exchange for the promise of maintaining peace and stability in the region (Bieber, 2017). It is directly linked to the role of the EU in accepting Western Balkan governments and leaders with authoritarian tendencies in order to guarantee peaceful intra-regional relations.
Considered as a step back from the EU’s idea of integration relying on democratic processes, this shift towards Stabilitocracy highlights the geopolitical considerations of EU enlargement, which are emphasised at the detriment of regime change and strengthening of freedoms.
In recent years, Serbia has been increasingly addressed as a Stabilitocracy, mixing an official democratic framework with de facto authoritarian practices implemented by a government backed by the EU. Indeed, by tolerating Serbia’s leadership despite democratic backsliding, the European Union aims to avoid further violent conflicts at its borders, guarantee security and peace, and ultimately align the country with its geopolitical and legislative agenda (Imeri, 2025).
On Serbia’s side, this situation widely benefits its President and government, allowing them to rule through non-transparent means while enjoying the EU’s political and financial support. Naturally, the worst outcome relies on Serbia’s democracy and civil society, continuously affected by the consequences of limited freedoms and corruption.
…and its Consolidation
Over the years, widespread corruption, lack of accountability, and limitation of freedoms have been the causes at the base of numerous tragedies and scandals, which enormously endangered the Serbian civil society.
An outstanding example of the civil society’s suffering came in November 2024, when a newly renovated canopy of the railway station of Novi Sad collapsed, killing 16 people. The renovation was carried out by the Chinese companies China Railway International Company Ltd and China Communications Construction Company Ltd (Katarina Baletic, 2024). The contract that assigned the renovation project to the two companies had been classified as confidential, and crucial documents have still not been published, fomenting the accusations of lack of transparency and high-level corruption (Popović, 2025).
The tragedy sparked numerous protests throughout the country, led by students and civil society, which demanded more accountability, transparency, an end to corruption, and the resignation of Novi Sad Mayor, government officials, and President Vučić (Stojanovic, 2024). Despite escalating repression, the massive protests continued for more than a year, also in the form of Serbian students cycling to Strasbourg and Brussels, bringing their cause to the Council of Europe and EU institutions to request their intervention (Baletic, 2025). Nevertheless, an official EU statement struggled to arrive, instead leaving space for praise for Serbia’s legislative reforms (Ivković, 2025).
Conclusion
To maintain stability in the region and its political influence in Serbia, the European Union is playing a dangerous game. The long-standing rule of President Vučić and the continuously shrinking democratic practices are already leading to repercussions on the skin of Serbian civil society in the form of limited political freedom. The EU’s response, perceived as too soft, is affecting its own credibility among Serbian citizens.
The future does not seem too bright. As Serbia scores 56/100 in Freedom House’s 2025 Global Freedom analysis, the major issues are identified in the lack of transparency, high corruption levels, and weak freedom of the press.
Yet, the protests that persisted for more than a year, involving tens of thousands of Serbian citizens and particularly led by students, can be taken as a signal that something inside the country is moving. Ideals of freedom, the Rule of Law, and accountability have been central motives for the protesters.
The development of Serbia’s political history in the last few decades can be taken as an example of the risks of consolidating a Stabilitocracy. While extremely important to maintain peace and cooperation in the region, the suffering of innocent citizens must not become an exchange currency.
References
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Bieber, F. (2017). BiEPAG - What is a stabilitocracy? Biepag.eu. https://www.biepag.eu/blog/what-is-a-stabilitocracy
Freedom House. (2025a). Serbia. Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/country/serbia
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