The Western Balkans and EU Enlargement: A Recap
Introduction
How often have you heard about developments regarding the EU enlargement to the Western Balkans? I believe that the answer to this question widely varies depending on who is asked and where they are from. On the one hand, for the citizens of the six Western Balkan countries, this is almost a daily topic: most people in the WB6 are aware of their country’s accession process, what chapters and clusters are, and of their country’s performance compared to their neighbours. On the other hand, for civil society inside the EU borders, they only occasionally hear soft echoes of such a topic, normally linked to other geopolitical and security-related issues, such as the war in Ukraine and the consequent need to integrate the candidate countries as soon as possible to prevent further Russian influence and aggression.
It is not for this article to explain the EU accession process further to the Western Balkan countries and their citizens. Nevertheless, as the first publication of Western Balkans Untangled, this aims to recap the history of the six Western Balkan countries’ EU accession process, hoping to provide more accessible insights to the EU civil society on what is going on not so far away from them.
Starting with a general summary of the history of the EU enlargement process to the Western Balkans, the article will later delve into the individual countries’ paths, struggles, and current positioning on the accession steps. Lastly, an overview of the risks and opportunities for the EU and the WB, together with some hopes for the future, will clarify how an EU enlargement to the region would affect both sides.
History & Requirements
The EU enlargement process to the Western Balkans has been a topic at the top of the Union’s enlargement policy table since the beginning of this century. After the break-up of Yugoslavia, with the creation of new independent countries, and the fall of the communist regime in Albania, it became increasingly clear that the future of these transitioning countries is as members of the Union. The 2003 EU-Western Balkans Summit in Thessaloniki, Greece, is considered as the starting point of such a process. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro were promised the following:
The EU reiterates its unequivocal support to the European perspective of the Western Balkan countries. The future of the Balkans is within the European Union. The ongoing enlargement and the signing of the Treaty of Athens in April 2003 inspire and encourage the countries of the Western Balkans to follow the same successful path. Preparation for integration into European structures and ultimate membership into the European Union, through adoption of European standards, is now the big challenge ahead. (European Commission, 2003)
Since then, all the Western Balkan countries have followed the path towards EU membership, not without obstacles. So far, of the countries mentioned in the Declaration, only Croatia managed to become a Member State, acceding to the Union in 2013 and marking the last EU enlargement wave.
While this article does not want to act as a textbook of EU enlargement policy, it is important to understand that, to become an EU Member State, candidate countries need to fulfil a list of requirements and align their legislation with the so-called EU Acquis Communautaire, the entirety of EU laws, which divides the different policy areas of the Acquis into 6 clusters, containing a total of 35 chapters (European Commission, 2025). Since Chapter 34 (Institutions) is usually not negotiated as it applies only once a country becomes a Member State, and Chapter 35 (Other Issues) addresses country-specific political issues, the number of negotiating Chapters is often referred to as 33.
Breakdown and Summary of Each Country’s Accession Process
Albania
Albania signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU in 2006, marking a first step in the alignment of the Albanian legislation with the EU Acquis. After submitting its application for EU membership in 2009, it was granted candidate status in 2014. In 2022, the accession negotiations were started (European Commission, 2025b).
In 2025, Albania opened negotiations on all 33 chapters, completing this phase at record speed. Although it has not closed any chapter yet, the country is making remarkable progress and is considered, after Montenegro, the most likely to soon obtain EU membership out of the WB6. Nevertheless, major difficulties in reaching EU standards and complying with EU legislation still need to be addressed, especially in relation to the rule of law and corruption levels.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU, which entered into force in 2015. The country applied for EU membership in 2016, and the European Council granted candidate status in 2022. In March 2024, the Council expressed its will to open accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina once it fulfils the outstanding membership criteria and adopts a set of required reforms, inviting the Commission to prepare the negotiation framework (European Commission, 2024c). So far, the official negotiations with the Intergovernmental Conference have not started, meaning that Bosnia and Herzegovina has not opened any Chapter yet.
Bosnia and Herzegovina also faces challenges that obstruct its way towards EU membership. Above all, the country lives in persistent political instability, also influenced by the complex constitutional structure defined by the Dayton Agreement, which divides the country into two main entities with diverging interests.
Kosovo
After declaring its independence from Serbia in 2008, a Stabilisation and Association Agreement between Kosovo and the EU entered into force in 2016, and the country applied for EU membership in 2022. Today, Kosovo remains a potential candidate, largely because five EU Member States do not recognise its independence, which prevents the EU from granting full candidate status (European Commission, 2025c).
Kosovo’s path towards the EU is the most complicated out of the other Western Balkan countries due to multiple reasons, among which are the lack of recognition of independence by Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain, the tense relationship with Serbia, minority-related issues, and a weak rule of law.
Montenegro
Montenegro has been defined as the frontrunner among Western Balkan countries in the EU accession process. After declaring its independence in 2006, the country applied for EU membership in 2008, a Stabilisation and Association Agreement entered into force in 2010, and accession negotiations started in 2012. So far, Montenegro has managed to open all chapters and to provisionally close 12 of them (European Commission, 2025d).
The accession of Montenegro to the European Union is expected to happen in 2028, becoming the 28th Member State and the first Western Balkan country to reach EU membership. Nevertheless, Montenegro also faces some challenges that need to be tackled, especially in the form of a weak rule of law, corruption issues, and organised crime.
North Macedonia
North Macedonia was the first of the Western Balkan countries to sign a Stabilisation and Association Agreement, right after its application for EU membership in 2004. In 2005, the European Council granted the candidate status to North Macedonia. After multiple recommendations to open accession negotiations made by the Commission, the screening process started only three years ago, in July 2022, after the acknowledgement that the country had achieved significant progress and Greece lifted its veto, following the name change from the Republic of Macedonia to the Republic of North Macedonia, as agreed through the 2018 Prespa Agreement.
Nevertheless, today the country is stuck in the process due to another bilateral dispute, which prevents the start of formal negotiations, leaving North Macedonia with no chapters opened (European Commission, 2024a). While the 2018 Prespa Agreement solved the so-called “name issue” with Greece, the most recent dispute involves the eastern neighbour, Bulgaria, and concerns the interpretation of historical events and the recognition of a Bulgarian minority present in North Macedonia, demanding constitutional amendments. Other challenges include a weak rule of law and high levels of corruption.
Serbia
Serbia formally applied for EU membership in 2009 and was granted candidate status in 2012. In 2013, a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU entered into force. In 2014, EU accession negotiations formally started.
Today, Serbia opened 22 out of 35 chapters of the EU acquis and provisionally closed two of them, but progress has been slow and is closely linked to necessary reforms (European Commission, 2024b).
The main difficulties for Serbia concern the weak Rule of Law, the need for improved democratic reforms, and the unstable relationship with Kosovo.
Risks and Opportunities for WB and EU
When talking about the EU accession of the Western Balkan countries, the most common narrative is that it would represent an unprecedented opportunity for the new Member States, especially in terms of economic growth. However, the accession of the six Western Balkan countries to the European Union represents risks and opportunities for both sides, which require careful consideration, critical analysis, and a problem-solving approach able to turn the possible risks into further opportunities.
Since 2013, the EU has entered a phase named “enlargement fatigue”, meaning a slowdown in enlargement due to multiple internal and external crises and concerns. Without a doubt, an enlargement to the Western Balkans presents some risks that the Institutions need to address before, during, and after the enlargement happens.
The most pressing risks are the following:
The EU would need to undergo major institutional reforms to facilitate its decision-making processes: for example, with more members, unanimity voting would become more and more unlikely to succeed due to an increased number of stakeholders with diverging interests.
There are many concerns regarding the budgets: the candidates are countries with weaker economies, which would need more economic support from the EU and, consequently, represent a burden on the EU’s finances.
Certain characteristics of the region might also influence the internal processes of the EU. Issues such as corruption trends, past disputes, and the closeness to other foreign actors like China and Russia could obstruct the functioning of the Union.
Nevertheless, there are also many opportunities from which the EU would benefit in the case of a Balkan enlargement:
First of all, the EU can enhance its geopolitical influence in the region, squeezing the interference of other imperialist and less-democratic players, such as Russia, China and Türkiye.
EU membership would improve the political and economic stability in the region: its standards and criteria for accession have the power to solidify democratic institutions and reduce the risks of other violent conflicts within the region, fostering political cooperation and increasing economic opportunities within the Single Market.
The Union could also economically benefit from new member states, thanks to increased access to new energy resources and transportation routes.
On the other hand, for the Western Balkan countries, EU membership also entails risks and opportunities. Among the risks:
The significant institutional reforms needed to become a Member State might result in increased bureaucracy, which could pose challenges for new and old businesses, especially for Small and Medium Enterprises.
EU citizenship could further exacerbate the brain drain from which these countries are already suffering, facilitating the emigration of Balkan citizens from their home countries to better-paying ones. Romania is often cited as a major example of such a trend: since its EU accession in 2007, thousands of Romanians have left the country to migrate to other EU Member States, leaving sectors such as the health system with a lack of workforce (Pitu & Popova, 2016).
Certain groups might resist the reforms needed to become EU Member States, sparking internal political tensions.
Nevertheless, for the Western Balkan citizens, the opportunities of EU accession clearly exceed the risks:
Thanks to increased foreign investments, trade, and access to financial support, EU membership would boost the economy of the Western Balkan countries. Some examples that prove this trend are Croatia, Romania, and Bulgaria, which have drastically increased in their GDPs since becoming Member States (Cieślik & Turgut, 2025). Although challenges might remain regarding social and economic disparities, EU accession and recent EU policies have had a positive record in the decrease of poverty rates in all Member States.
The Western Balkan countries would improve their political stability thanks to reforms that require greater transparency and accountability in democratic institutions.
Access to the EU Single Market would again boost the economy thanks to the free movement of goods, capital, services, and people.
Conclusion
The EU accession of the Western Balkan countries has been a recurring topic on the EU agenda for more than 20 years, alternating periods of stagnation and renewed momentum. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the enlargement process has experienced a notable revival, driven primarily by the EU’s geopolitical considerations and concerns about public sentiment in the Western Balkans, particularly in the case that Ukraine and Moldova were to join the Union ahead of the 6WB, which have been queuing for more than two decades.
In a nutshell, the EU accession of the WB countries presents both tangible risks and significant opportunities. While economic, institutional, and budgetary concerns may threaten the enthusiasm for a further enlargement of the Union, such challenges are not insurmountable. History shows us that the same EU project has been shaped by subsequent crises and the common political response to these. Overcoming these challenges is in the hands of policymakers, who have the power to demonstrate vision, set priorities, and direct new ways. With commitment from both the EU and the candidate countries, the aforementioned risks can be mitigated and transformed into yet another success story of cooperation between peoples.
References
Cieślik, A., & Turgut, M. B. (2025). The growth effects of Bulgaria and Romania’s EU accession: A synthetic control method examination. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 13(1), 155–167. https://doi.org/10.15678/eber.2025.130109
European Commission. (2003, June 21). Eu-Western Balkans Summit Thessaloniki, 21 June 2003. European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/PRES_03_163
European Commission. (2024a, October 30). North Macedonia. Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/north-macedonia_en
European Commission. (2024b, October 30). Serbia. Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/serbia_en
European Commission. (2024c, December 12). Bosnia and Herzegovina. Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/bosnia-and-herzegovina_en
European Commission. (2025a). Chapters of the acquis / negotiating chapters. Europa.eu. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/glossary-old/chapters-acquis-negotiating-chapters_en
European Commission. (2025b, March 11). Albania. Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/albania_en
European Commission. (2025c, March 28). Kosovo. Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/kosovo_en
European Commission. (2025d, March 28). Montenegro. Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/montenegro_en
Pitu, L., & Popova, D. (2016, December 28). “Brain drain” in Bulgaria and Romania. Dw.com; Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/en/brain-drain-from-bulgaria-and-romania-helps-germany/a-36936406
